EU Climate Plan is achievable: can cut emissions and energy bills hugely

The European Climate Foundation (ECF) launched “Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe” in Brussels, a study that analyses the technical and economic feasibility of different pathways towards achieving a minimum of 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 1990 levels by 2050, in a manner that maintains today’s energy security and economic prosperity. The study also finds that CCS is an essential component of all pathways, regardless of the percentage of energy production made up by renewables, as it is assumed to be applied on half of all heavy industry. The report also highlights the additional CO2 emission abatement potential of combining biomass combustion with CCS.

The mission of Roadmap 2050 is to provide a practical, independent and objective analysis of pathways to achieve a low-carbon economy in Europe, in line with the energy security, environmental and economic goals of the European Union. The Roadmap 2050 project is an initiative of the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and has been developed by a consortium of experts funded by the ECF.

High level of reliability

The project finds that in a decarbonised power system, the future cost of electricity is comparable to the future cost of electricity in the current carbon-intensive infrastructure. Roadmap 2050 also shows that with the necessary investments in energy efficiency and Europe’s power network infrastructure, a decarbonised power sector using available technologies can provide the same high level of reliability that consumers enjoy today, in all low/zero carbon pathways.

The report was authored by the ECF with technical and economic analysis by Imperial College London, KEMA, Oxford Economics and McKinsey & Company and policy analysis by E3G and the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). AMO, a research and design studio within the Office for Metropolitan Architecture, contributed to the content development through the production of a graphic narrative which conceptualizes and visualizes the geographic, political, and cultural implications of the integrated, decarbonised European power sector.

Roadmap 2050 looks at the economic, service reliability, infrastructure, energy security and policy implications of the European power system in 2050 in four decarbonised scenarios. The pathways do not rely on imported electricity and are based on existing or late stage development technologies including renewables such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and also non-renewable low-carbon resources such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear.

Not more expensive

When the Roadmap 2050 project started, a number of widely shared assumptions dominated the debate on the future of the European power sector. These included assertions that high-renewable energy scenarios would be too unstable to provide sufficient reliability, that high-renewable scenarios would be uneconomic and much more costly, and that technology breakthroughs would be required to move Europe to a zero-carbon power sector. Roadmap 2050 has found all of these assertions to be incorrect.

With the exception of existing hydroelectric facilities, almost all of the power generation capacity required to supply Europe in 2050 will need to be built in the next 40 years. This is a major undertaking regardless of the energy mix, and would pose a massive challenge even in a high-carbon scenario.

Key findings

The key finding of the Roadmap 2050 project is that the challenge is basically the same in either a high-carbon, low-carbon or zero-carbon energy scenario, in terms of overall cost and scale.

What does change significantly is the required level of investment early in the cycle. Capital expenditure on energy infrastructure will need to double in the next 15 years to deliver a zero-carbon power sector by 2050. But in that scenario, the overall energy bill for the economy will be heading downward by 2020, and the day-to-day running costs fall fast throughout the period.

As well as studying the technical requirements of the grid and power infrastructure and the economics of the various scenarios, the Roadmap 2050 project has also delivered an analysis of the policy requirements for decarbonisation of the power sector by 2050.

Action before 2015 is a prerequisite for decarbonisation by 2050. Immediate policy development and implementation should focus on:
• Energy Efficiency measures, creating cost savings and reducing demand.
• Investments in regional networks and local smart grids and coordination of power market operations among member states, maximizing the value of low-carbon investments and minimizing back-up supply and load-balancing requirements.
• Market reform to ensure an effective investment scenario.

Roadmap 2050 shows that existing policy frameworks can be adapted to support decarbonisation of the European power-sector, but that an holistic approach is needed, with rapid action at both regional and national level required.

Encouraging

“The report reveals many myths untrue and shows how achievable the renewable energy pathways are,” said Tom Brookes, head of the Energy Strategy Center at the foundation. “Existing nuclear capacity and fossil fuels will be almost off by 2050. We will have to build new capacity, and at the end of the day it’s a political decision where you direct funding.”

The cost of energy per unit of gross domestic product may fall as much as 30 percent by 2050, mostly because of increased energy efficiency, shifts away from oil and gas for power generation and lower exposure of greener industries to carbon prices, according to the report.

EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said he was “encouraged” by the findings of the report.

“The 2050 energy roadmap is good opportunity for cooperation between European institutions, member states, stakeholders and global partners,” he told a seminar held to launch the report in Brussels today. “The stakes are high, the challenge is not only low-carbon society but also leadership in a worldwide industrial race.”

Increased Spending

A low-carbon economy faces “profound implementation challenges,” the study said, with spending on new technologies and energy-efficiency measures likely to top 3 trillion euros over 40 years. The increase in spending needed to boost the share of renewable energy will be offset by smaller operating costs from lower fossil fuel requirements and savings from higher energy efficiency, the report said.

The Foundation urged the EU to adopt binding energy- efficiency targets, request long-term targets from member states for renewable-generation technologies, and ensure sufficient financing for low-carbon projects, including carbon capture and storage.

The call came as negotiators at United Nations climate talks put off a decision on how to treat a U.S.-brokered agreement on global warming, reducing the chances for a new plan on limiting emissions of greenhouse gasses after 2012.

Climate Goals

After three days of discussions, delegates from 175 countries left it up to Margaret Mukahanana-Sangarwe, a diplomat from Zimbabwe chairing the talks, to decide what parts of the accord signed by President Barack Obama in December 2009 in Copenhagen to include in the UN’s official negotiating text.

The EU aims to get 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020 to cut the bloc’s dependence on imports and help attain its climate goals. These include wind and solar power, biomass as well as photovoltaic energy.

EU nations should strengthen energy-efficiency standards for buildings, set an “aggressive timetable” for the so-called smart grids that would enable transmission of renewable energy, develop incentives for investing in clean technologies and explore new ways of funding.

“The 2050 goals will be hard to realize if the transition is not started in earnest within the next five years,” Brookes said. “Delays only make things much more expensive.”

http://www.roadmap2050.eu/index.html

http://www.europeanclimate.org/

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